Overview of the current situation
On Monday, 23 September, at the international currency market Forex, GBPUSD trading in an ascending manner. Trades are rather calm, since macroeconomic background remains scarce, and some important news on the market.
Last weekend there was a very important and interesting event-elections in Germany. However, the victory of Angela Merkel (Chancellor's on 3-th term) would not have a significant impact on the market, since the victory of the leader of the Christian Democratic Union definitely analysts predicted. Overall, the euro zone remains on the path of moderate growth, which should be enough buyers to the single currency. Despite the existence of a number of pressing problems, the peak of the crisis this time seem to be really behind.
The British, however, remains extremely attractive for purchase, easily ahead of the euro. Albion's economy increasingly demonstrates the positive signals that indicate its rapid recovery.
The Bank of England has not offers no surprises, which is perceived positively. Unlike the FED, the market is waiting for the start of QE-3 collapse, the British CENTRAL BANK is free to choose a vector of monetary policy and is not bothered by high expectations. However, like the FED, the Bank of England's monetary policy sverhmâgkoj. At the last meeting, members unanimously voted to retain the current interest rate, as well as for past volumes of the redemption of the bonds.
Likely scenarios for future development of price movement
It is likely that the pair will demonstrate the flètovuû momentum trading. The main driver for the market this week are likely to be macroeconomic statistics, the output of which will increase with each passing day.
For the British currency very interesting day will be Sunday, September 26, when the United Kingdom publishes the third estimate for GDP for 2 quarter of 2013. While analysts do not expect any change in previous estimates, so the market reaction to the data may be negligible.
Evidence of technical indicators
The average indicator line "Bollinger bands" continues its steady growth. The price range is expanding to make way for a new pair of local maximums. The indicator recommends holding long positions in the medium term.
In the meantime, the MACD indicator is a sell signal. Due to the rapid decrease in the end of last week, the indicator began to decrease and is now formally is in a bearish signal (histogram is located below the signal line). But, of course, the credibility of such a signal, because it is not supported by the new trading week. It is recommended to wait for clarification of the situation.
A similar picture of the Stochastic Oscillator and demonstrates "that still is firmly down. The indicator recommends selling in sverhkratkosročnoj run along the vector a downward correction. However, in connection with an attempt to pound to resume growth, open new short positions are not recommended, but hold the transaction a small amount you can.
Current price levels
Among the strongest levels of support can be identified: 1.6040 (nearest point), 1.6000 (an important psychological barrier), 1.5962, 1.5930, 1.5900 1.5876, and some others.
The next resistance are at 1.6056, 1.6080, 1.6100 (interesting level for short-term and extremely short-term Bulls), 1.6140, 1.6178 (near the current local maximum) and on the other.
The possibility of opening long transactions worth considering after a certain break point 1.6100, followed by rebound from it as support.
An alternative might be a possibility of sales on a sure break the next key support levels, for example, Mark 1.6000/1.5962.